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Tuesday, September 24, 2019

Lower today on impeachment worries as the Dow fell 142 points on good volume.  The advance/declines were 2 to 1 negative.  This will turn the summation index down.  The overall market was much weaker than the Dow, with the NASDAQ off over 100 points.  We did get a signal last night from the McClellan oscillator of a big move within the next two days.  Todays price action takes care of that.  I'm still a believer that weakness can be bought here for the short term.  I am looking at the SPY October calls and will probably purchase some tomorrow if we get more selling.  The short term technical indicators have rolled over and are moving down for SPY.  We aren't yet completely oversold there but are getting close.  Timing as always will be key on the entry.  This could be a buy on Wednesday sell on Friday type of deal.  We are seeing weakness in the latter half of September and that wasn't unexpected.  GE lost 1/3 on average volume.  Gold once again continues to find buyers and was up just about $10.  The US dollar was lower.  The XAU rose a point, while GDX added 1/3.  Volume remains good here.  Not completely overbought for the gold shares yet on a short term basis.  Just another missed trade here for me.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The VIX closed above the 17 level and above its 50 and 200 day moving averages.  The short term technical indicators here are mid-range for the most part.  The spike higher here could possibly be the beginning of higher volatility and lower prices.  Then why try the SPY calls tomorrow?  Well I'm looking at more than just indicator here and my work points to some type of positive price behavior within the next couple of sessions.  Barring a complete out of the blue collapse, I have reason to believe that the market will be moving higher in the near term.  It may only be a day or two but it does appear to be a trading opportunity.  Yes, the premiums are high with so much time left in the October option cycle but if a signal comes forward and looks good I have to have the guts to give it a try.  Who knows?  Maybe something will happen overnight and I'll change my mind.  Or maybe the market will change it for me.  However as it stands now if we do see some selling tomorrow I'll be trying the SPY October calls.  Asia higher and Europe lower overnight.  We'll see what tomorrow brings.

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