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Thursday, September 19, 2019

A mixed bag today as the Dow fell 52 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were barely positive.  the summation index is still moving up.  The overall market was stronger than the Dow.  The market needs to show some strength here or it appears to be rolling over.  We're still short term overbought.  September is generally a tale of two halves.  With the first half being positive, it usually reverses the outcome of the first half in the second.  Strength implies weakness and weakness implies strength.  It doesn't always occur that way but it does more often than not.  So we'll need to see a run to new all times highs in a hurry or take note.  GE was up a few cents on light volume again.  Gold was up a few bucks on the futures.  The US dollar was slightly lower.  The XAU added 1 3/4, while GDX gained 1/2.  Volume was average.  It appears that I've missed the chance for the October GDX calls.  Although GDX is more oversold than overbought, the indicators have turned up.  Yesterdays low looks like the ideal entry point but having just gotten off the plane my mental state of mind wasn't ideal for trading.  I'm slowly coming back.  I am a believer in the move that gold has made.  I'm just looking for a decent entry point for the next long trade.  I'm also considering going further out in time, to November or January.  However if we do happen to pull back again in the near term I may still try for October.  Mentally I'm still a bit tired.  The VIX remains oversold but in rallies it stays that way.  But the VIX is saying that the next logical trade in SPY should be the puts.  I kind of agree but will need to see an overbought reading on one of my own indicators first.  Not there yet.  We've got the September option expiration tomorrow so things could get interesting.  Europe and Asia were higher with the exception of Hong Kong last night.  We'll close out the trading week tomorrow.

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