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Monday, September 23, 2019

Not much of a start to the week as the Dow gained 14 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were positive.  The summation index is still moving up.  The short term technical indicators have rolled over here but I do think we'll make another run at new all time highs soon.  I also think that weakness tomorrow can be bought for a short term trade.  Whether or not I try the SPY October calls remains to be seen.  GE lost a few cents on light volume.  Gold continues to find buyers, the precious metal gained almost $15.  The US dollar was slightly higher.  The XAU was up two points, while GDX gained 1/2.  Volume was good.  Silver rose almost 5% today.  Money continues to flow into the precious metals complex and that cannot be ignored.  I'm still considering the GDX October calls but the ideal time to purchase has passed.  We've also just moved into the October option cycle, so there's no rush to put on any position.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Pretty close to new all time highs on the S&P 500.  With the VIX staying below its 50 and 200 day moving averages, I'd say the chances are good that we'll see new all time highs sooner rather than later.  This, despite being short term overbought on the S&P short term indicators.  That's my guess at the moment.  If we do get through the near term overhead resistance on the S&P with good volume, a rally should take place.  Hasn't happened yet and all could simply turn lower with the next headline as well.  My fondness for the gold shares here has already been disseminated but the opportunity appears to have been missed due to my return from being away from the trading desk.  Patience will have to be the game plan for now there.  Asia was higher with the exception of Hong Kong.  Europe traded lower.  We'll keep an eye on the overnight developments.   

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