Wednesday, September 04, 2019
Heading back up today as the Dow gained 237 points on light volume. The advance/declines were 4 to 1 positive. This will turn the summation index to the upside. The S&P 500 is on the cusp of breaking out to the upside form the congestion zone. Perhaps the jobs numbers will make that happen. Of course we are at the mercy of the next trade headline, so let's not get ahead of ourselves. But perhaps the selling has been exhausted and the beginning of September rise can occur. A break above the 50 day moving average for the S&P could generate some short covering. GE was up almost 1/2 on heavy volume. Gold continued higher adding $6. The US dollar was lower as it is running up against resistance. The XAU rose 1 1/2, while GDX gained 5/8. Volume was average. We are a nickel away from the 31 target for GDX. This is a logical spot for the gold shares to take a rest. But this rally has been fueled by plenty of money so I believe that it has staying power for quite some time. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX is heading back down to its 50 and 200 day moving averages. Keep an eye on them because what happens there will tell us where this market is headed. A break below those averages and prices above the congestion zone would imply that a rally is on. Hasn't happened yet but a case can be made. Light volume today is a concern though. I'll be traveling tonight and away from my desk until September 18th. If I can find my way to a computer during my travels, I'll provide an update. But I won't be back full time until the Fed announcement in the middle of the month. Asia was mixed but there was a huge rally in Hong Kong. Europe was higher. I'll be back soon.
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