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Thursday, September 26, 2019

Lower but off the worst levels of the day as the Dow fell 79 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were negative.  The summation index is still tracking sideways.  The market appears to be trying to hold on here but I'm not exactly sure that it will be successful.  I did place an order again for the SPY October calls but it wasn't filled.  Things certainly get trickier for that trade now as we've moved past the prime time to enter it.  The short term technical indicators for the major stock indices are not completely oversold yet either.  The NASDAQ is getting close to violating its up trend line that began in June.  There is not a crystal clear picture of what to do here but there really never is.  I'm still leaning towards the bullish side though for now.  A break of that NASDAQ line would change things though.  The impeachment wild card is a problem going forward.  Plus we can't forget the trade troubles as well.  GE was off about 1/8 on light volume.  Gold was little changed.  The US dollar was slightly higher.  The XAU dropped 1 1/3, while GDX shed 1/3.  Volume was lighter.  I'd prefer to see the gold shares get oversold again before trying the GDX calls again.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The VIX is staying above the 16 level and that's not really bolstering the bullish case for calls here.  It seems to me that we've moved into a zone where there's more questions than answers for the market.  I had a better handle on things a couple of days ago for the short term SPY call trade.  Now things aren't so clear cut.  I'll check things again tonight and go from there.  End of the month and quarter coming up on Monday.  Asia was mixed and Europe higher in last nights trade.  We'll close out the trading week tomorrow.

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