Monday, October 28, 2019
The Dow was higher today and the S&P 500 closed at new all time highs. The most watched index rose 132 points on average volume. The advance/declines were positive. The summation index is moving up. We got a signal on Friday for a big move according to the McClellan oscillator. Today qualifies as that. We have broken above resistance for the S&P but the volume was lacking and I'm considering getting some SPY November puts. In fact today may have been the day to do that. If we open down tomorrow, it may be too late for the puts. Or I could simply be wrong here and the rally keeps going. Short term overbought still and staying that way. It should be an interesting week, with the Fed on Wednesday and the jobs report on Friday. GE was up a few cents and the volume was light. Sort term overbought here as well. Gold dropped $10 on the futures as the US dollar was slightly lower as well. The XAU was down 1 3/4, while GDX shed 2/3. Volume was light. The price action we saw on Friday foretold the move lower today for gold and the gold shares. However the Bollinger bands remain tight for these instruments. A big move is coming in either direction here. I did once again place an open order for the GDX January calls which I am leaving out there. But if GDX breaks the 26 level, I'll have to cancel the order because that would mean that the big move in gold will be lower. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was a bit higher today despite the nice move in stocks. This sometimes means that lower prices are coming. We've been short term overbought for quite some time now for the S&P. I'm expecting the indicators to move lower at some point during the November option cycle. Perhaps with the events of this week we'll finally get a catalyst for lower prices. But we do have the over the counter prices breaking out to new highs as well so we may just trend higher with no break. RUT continues to lag though and that is a concern for the bulls. With all the news that's about to break this week, staying on the sidelines is a strategy as well. However sticking with the technical indicators is the way that we'll go. Light volume rallies cannot be trusted. We'll be watching the volume closely form here. Europe and Asia were both higher overnight. It seems as though there is a worldwide shift into stocks going on at the moment. We'll see how it goes tomorrow.
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