Tuesday, October 22, 2019
Lower today as the Dow seemed to begin falling when news of another Brexit failure hit the wires. The Dow fell 39 points on average volume. The advance/declines were positive though. The summation index continues higher. The overall market was weaker than the Dow today. The major indices remain short term overbought. Although the averages declined the advance/declines were positive. This tells me that we are not at the brink of disaster and my original thesis of getting to new all time highs for the S&P 500 is still intact. It may take longer than this week now though. The TRAN and RUT both closed higher today and that is a plus. GE was up 1/4 on average volume. Gold was up a few bucks and the US dollar was higher as well. Perhaps a small flight to safety move in these instruments after the Brexit delay. The XAU and GDX had fractional moves on light volume. My open order for the GDX January calls remains out there. There is still the implication of a big move coming in precious metals. I'm still looking for that to be positive but it really could go either way. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The daily candlestick charts for some of the major stock averages now have bearish engulfing patterns. We'll see if this plays out to lower prices in the days ahead. The VIX rose today on the late sell off. It remains below the line of demarcation that I'm putting at the 16 level. As long as that holds, I'm looking for higher prices. Not SPY trades in mind right now. If we do get down to oversold, I may try the SPY November calls. However, as you can see by the price action today, we're always at the mercy of the next headline. It's just part of the game that has gotten more common than it used to be. Europe and Asia were higher overnight. That probably will change tonight with the Brexit drama. It also could cause a rally in gold and the US dollar. But we'll just have to see how things play out as the story unfolds. We'll keep an eye on the overnight developments.
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