Tuesday, October 29, 2019
Waiting on the Fed as the Dow fell 19 points on average volume. The advance/declines were slightly positive. The summation index is still moving up. The overall market was weaker than the Dow led by a decline in the NASDAQ. I'm still considering the SPY November puts if we get some strength tomorrow. The market remains short term overbought. A lot hinges on what the Fed has to say tomorrow. We'll also get earnings from Facebook and Apple after the bell. Google disappointed today and that could be a harbinger of things to come. Or not. The VIX remains low in market rally mode and is oversold. So there are plenty of crosscurrents that could lead things to go either way. I will probably wait for the Fed announcement and short any rally out of that. If we drop beforehand, I'll sit things out. GE was flat on average volume. Gold was off a few bucks and the US dollar was a bit lower. The XAU and GDX had fractional gains on light volume. I'm leaving my order out there for the GDX January calls. We'll need to see some more decline there to be filled. Mentally I'm feeling OK. About ready to attempt a trade in the SPY here but it will be risky. We've broken out above resistance for the S&P but it hasn't been robust. That could change tomorrow and that is one of the risks. Good earnings after the bell is another risk. Add the employment report due out on Friday and you can see how the risks for a trade here either way pile up. I am pretty sure that if things set up for me though I'll pull the trigger. Some of my indicators are topping out and pointing towards at least a short term decline. We've remained overbought for a while now and although that could continue, I'm betting that it won't. The market is at least due to take a rest. I could be wrong though but one thing is for sure. Tomorrows market action will tell a lot. Asia was generally higher with Europe mixed overnight. We'll see what the Fed has to say tomorrow and take it from there.
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