Tuesday, October 01, 2019
The Dow got clobbered today and fell 343 points on good volume. The advance/declines were almost 3 to 1 negative. The summation index is now moving lower with intent. Any ideas that I had of getting the SPY October calls are gone in the near term. The NASDAQ has broken its up trend line that began in June. The major stock indices are short term oversold but now will probably remain that way. Weak economic data was the cause for todays decline and all the major averages took a hit. The TRAN got clobbered as well. RUT was the canary in the coal mine as it has been dropping mostly straight down for about two weeks. The S&P 500 closed below its 50 day moving average. GE fell 1/3 on good volume. Gold bounced back $15 as the US dollar was lower. The XAU and GDX had fractional gains on good volume. I'm considering putting in the GDX January call order here but it will take more of a decline in the gold shares for it to get filled. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX closed above 18 today and the short term indicators are overbought. That could imply that this decline doesn't have legs. Of course the market will usually do what is least expected and the VIX can always remain overbought. However with the S&P already oversold this isn't a move lower that I'm going to chase just yet. Fridays employment report should be the next big moving data point. The small stocks are generally the leaders, so the NASDAQ breaking of the up trend line should be a clue. That line comes in at around 290 for the SPY. So should we expect a break there as well? That's the question in my mind at the moment. Or is that the spot to try the SPY October calls? Always plenty of questions in the game. Probably my best course of action here will be inaction as I'm not convinced about one way or the other. Early today would have been the time to get short in retrospect. How long the decline lasts is another question that will need to be answered. For now I think that I'll wait for Friday but that could change overnight. Asia was higher and Europe lower in last nights trade. We'll see what tomorrow brings.
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