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Tuesday, April 01, 2025

Waiting on the tariffs as the Dow dropped 11 points on average volume. The advance/declines were positive. The summation index is still trending lower. The NASDAQ was the leader today and that is a plus. I'm getting the feeling that we have at least put in a short term low here and we'll challenge the short term down trend line on the S&P soon. The short term indicators for the S&P 500 are trying to turn up. It looks like weakness today should have been bought but we'll have to see what tomorrow brings. But it is possible that for now the market is sold out. Gold finished flat on the futures. The US dollar ended flat as well, while interest rates were slightly lower. The XAU and GDX had slight fractional moves one way or the other on light volume. The short term indicators for GDX remain overbought. We'll see how gold reacts to what comes out of the tariff news tomorrow. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was a bit lower today. Some of the short term indicators here are starting to move sideways. I'm still thining that the VIX will move lower and stocks higher in the near term. One thing that the market does not like is uncertainty. Getting the tariff news out of the way will take care of some of that. So I would not be surprised if we see some buying tomorrow regardless of what the tariffs are. We'll see. Europe and Asia were higher with the exception of India. We'll see how things go tomorrow.

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