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Monday, April 14, 2025

The short trading week started on an upbeat note as the Dow gained 312 points on good volume. The advance/declines were 4 to 1 positive. This should stall the summation index. The market did finish off of the highs for the day. The S&P 500 was the leader. The short term indicators there are mid-range so things could go either way from here. I'm waiting to see if we can make it back to the down trend line at 5600 in order to try the SPY puts. Don't think that we'll get there this week. Doubt I'll be trying anything here with only three days left in the April option cycle but you never know. Gold dropped $16 on the futures. The US dollar continues to fall and interest rates dipped. The XAU rose 1 3/4 and GDX added 1/4. Volume was average. GDX is short term overbought. I'll wait for a pullback here as GDX is both short and medium term overbought. There seems to be no shortage of money that wants to be in gold though. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower today which fits an up market. The short term indicators here are pointing down at the mid-range level. The VIX is still above 30. I'd expect it to move lower as stocks move higher in the near term. However we are at the mercy of the next tariff headline and that makes for tough trading. Perhaps the most we can hope for is some sideways price action before the next trend gets going. Europe and Asia were higher to begin the week as well. We'll keep an eye on the overnight trading activity.

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