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Thursday, April 10, 2025

Sellers returned today and that wasn't unexpected as the Dow fell 1014 points on very heavy volume. The advance/declines were 8 to 1 negative. The summation index continues lower. A lighter than expected inflation report didn't matter as we had a gap down at the open. The NASDAQ led the way lower. The short term indicators for the S&P are starting to roll over. I did place an order for some April SPY puts overnight but it wasn't filled. I canceled the ticket this morning. The S&P did not make it back to the down trend line in place but yesterdays huge jump was out of the ordinary and more selling was to be expected. I do not think we will be taking out the recent lows here as the medium term indicators are blown out to the downside. Sideways would be a step in the right direction but if we do make it back to the down trend line for the S&P I'll try the puts there. Volatility is the rule for now and option premiums are expensive. Gold jumped over $100 on the futures today. The US dollar was lower and interest rates finished mixed. The XAU gained 6 1/4 and GDX was up over 2 1/8. Volume remains heavy for the gold shares as money contiues to flow here. I canceled my open order for the GDX May calls because GDX has moved over 10% in two days and the order has no chance of being filled. I still like the gold shares despite the recent jump and will try for the May calls here again on a pullback. The short term indicators for GDX are moving up and still have room to go. GDX is medium term overbought as well but we cannot deny the interest in this sector. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX bounced around today. It made it up to almost 55 before dropping back and finishing around the 40 level. The short term indicators on the VIX are stalling near the mid-range level. I'm not sure what's next for the VIX. Anything goes in this level of volatility. Pay attention, be nimble and don't risk a lot at this moment in time. Europe and Asia were higher overnight with the exception of India. We'll cose out a wild week on Wall street tomorrow.

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