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Monday, April 21, 2025

Sellers took over to begin the week as the Dow fell 971 points on average volume. The advance/declines were around 6 to 1 negative. The summation index is in a sideways pattern. Once again a last hour push higher kept things from being worse. Both the Dow and NASDAQ led the way down. The short term indicators for the S&P 500 have rolled over with room to go. Plenty of earnings due this week and of course the ongoing tariff headlines along with Trump tirades. So there will be excuses for price movement. I still like the idea of the SPY puts if we ever make it back to the daily down trend line there. But that might require an unknown waiting period. At the rate things are going it could be a while. I'm now considering the SPY calls on a test of the recent lows around 4850 on the S&P. I did place an open order for some SPY May calls today, projecting what they may cost if we get a drop that far. I'm leaving the order out there. Not sure how this idea will pan out but we'll have to see how the rest of the week goes. Gold was up over a hundred bucks to day to a new all time high. The US dollar continues to drop and interest rates finished mixed. The XAU gained 1 1/2 and GDX added about 3/4. Volume was good for the gold shares but you would expect more of a price pop considering the move in gold. Gold itself has gone parabolic and certainly won't go straight up forever. Trying to predict the top is a guessing game though. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was higher today but not a much as you would expect. Perhaps the market is getting used to huge swings one way or the other. The short term indicators here are trying to turn back up. Still above the 30 level on the VIX as volatility is the rule. Tough trading environment. Asia was higher with the exception of Japan and Europe was mainly closed to start the week. I'll keep an eye on the overnight headlines.

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