Tuesday, April 22, 2025
Back to the upside as the Dow roared ahead by 1016 points on good volume. The advance/declines were 10 to 1 positive. The summation index is trying to turn up again. It looks like my idea of stocks retesting the recent lows isn't going to happen soon as I had planned. My open order for the SPY May calls is still out there but another session like today and I'll most likely cancel it. The short term indicators for the S&P are mid-range and trying to turn up. Maybe we will make it back to the daily down trend line on the S&P. It's going to have to happen sooner or later. Gold had quite a reversal today as it zoomed up past $3500 overnight only to reverse and close lower. The futures lost $37. The US dollar was higher and interest rates ended mixed. The XAU dropped 3 1/3, while GDX shed 1 3/8. Volume was good on the decline. The short term indicators for GDX are starting to roll over but it's still overbought. I'd like to try the calls for GDX if it gets short term oversold again or falls to areas of support. There is not hurry as gold went parabolic and that usually does not end well. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower today and that fits with an up market. The short term indicators are mid-range or lower but not oversold yet. The VIX is hanging on the Bollinger band mid-range line. A break below would be a positive for stocks. Asia and Europe were generally higher overnight. We'll see what tomorrow brings.
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