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Thursday, April 03, 2025

The market threw a tariff tantrum today as stocks suffered huge losses. The Dow fell 1679 points on very heavy volume. The advance/declines were 7 to 1 negative. This will turn the summation index back down and on its way to the zero line. The tariffs that perhaps were going to give us some clarity instead have created even more uncertainty. The was a giant gap down at the open and stocks never came back. The NASDAQ fell over 1000 points or 6% for the session. It led the way lower. The S&P 500 lost roughly 275 points. The previous near term lows were taken out. The short term indicators here are moving back lower with room to go. Not sure how low we'll go here on the S&P. There is some support at 5200 and the longer term up trend line that began at the bottom in 2022 comes in at 5000. Either target is in play as is looks like we'll be going through the zero line on the summation index. The down trend line on the S&P daily chart is still in charge. Gold dropped $37 on the futures but did come back from the worst levels on the day. The US dollar was lower along with interest rates. The XAU fell 3 points, while GDX ended the day flat. Volume was good. They both ended up from their lows as well. I did place an order overnight for some GDX April calls but canceled it before the bell when GDX was about to open 4 1/2% lower. I did try again for some calls later in the day but my order wasn't filled. The short term indicators for GDX are starting to trend lower. However money is still finding a home in gold and I'd like to try the calls here if GDX can get back to its up trend line that began in January. One caveat is that GDX is both short and medium term overbought. However it can stay that way during rallies and we are in one now for gold. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX jumped today and closed at the 30 level. The short term indicators are now moving up and getting to overbought territory. The daily candlestick chart that I thought was going to go lower has completely turned around. You can expect more volatility in the days to come and I'm not sure how high the VIX will go. Tomorrow we've got the employment report and then a speech by the Fed chairman. So it should be a wild end to the trading week. Still two weeks to go in the April option cycle. However option premiums are high and the environment is even more uncertain than usual. There will be opportunities though. Europe and Asia sank overnight. We'll close out the week tomorrow.

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