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Monday, April 28, 2025

An interesting session today as the market opened higher, sold off then managed to make it all the way back. The Dow gained 114 points on average volume. The advance/declines were positive. The summation index is moving up. It was a mixed bag as the NASDAQ posted a small loss and the S&P 500 was little changed. Short term overbought now on the S&P and this is the spot to try the SPY May puts. My open order remains out there but it may have to be adjusted in order to get a fill. Inflation data, the employment report and plenty of earnings due out this week. It will also be the end of the month and the start of May. I think that any strength tomorrow can be sold and I will try to buy the SPY May puts at some point. However it is possible that I'm early on this idea and that has to be factored in as well. Gold jumped $64 on the futures today. The US dollar was lower along with interest rates. The XAU was up 1 3/4, while GDX added 1/2. Volume was light. The gold shares didn't move up as much as the price of gold would imply. It seems like traders have backed off of this idea for now. The short term indicators for GDX are trending sideways. I'll still try and wait for GDX to reach short term oversold before trying the calls there. Mentally I'm feeling a bit tired. The VIX was up slightly today. It is hanging around its 50 day moving average and remains short term oversold. It can stay oversold during rallies and you could make that case now. I'll consider what action to take tonight with regards to the SPY May put idea. Europe was slightly higher and Asia generally positive to start the week. I'll keep an eye on the overnight headlines.

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