Wednesday, April 16, 2025
The market rolled back over today as the Dow fell 699 points on good volume. The advance/declines were negative. The summation index is in a sideways trend. It would have been worse but we got a last half hour bounce, perhaps option expiration related. We are at the mercy of the next announcement of tariffs or trading barriers. That makes for an even tougher trading environment. The NASDAQ led the way down and that is not a plus. The S&P 500 opened with a gap lower and never looked back. The short term indicators here are starting to roll over. We are heading into a long weekend and I doubt we'll see a lot of buying tomorrow with all the uncertainty around. I could be wrong. I'll try and wait for at least some kind of decent technical signal before attempting the next trade. Gold soared up over $100 on the futures. The US dollar was lower and interest rates wandered higher. The XAU was up 4 1/3 and GDX gained 1 1/3. Volume was good as gold and the gold shares continue to attract capital. However they are both short term overbought and heading higher in a staight line. I'll do my best not to chase this rally for now. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was higher today which fits a down market. The short term indicators here are trying to turn back up. If successful it will mean lower stock prices in the near term. At this point we'll get through tomorrow and take it from there. Asia was mixed and Europe generally higher overnight. We'll close out the trading week tomorrow.
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