Thursday, April 17, 2025
It was a pretty uneventful option expiration day though the Dow did lose 519 points on good volume. The advance/declines were around 3 to 1 positive. This should turn the summation index higher. The overall market did much better than the Dow, with the S&P 500 posting a slight gain and the NASDAQ showing a slight loss. Much of teh Dow loss was due to a drop in UNH. The short term indicators for the S&P are still hanging around the mid-range level heading into a long weekend. I'm still in the camp of waiting for a good technical signal before trying the next trade. I also still like the idea of trying the SPY puts if and when the S&P makes it back to the daily down trend line. We'll be rolling into the May option cycle so premiums will be high. Gold was off a dozen or so on the futures. The US dollar finished flat and interest rates ticked up. The XAU lost about 3 3/4, while GDX shed almost a point. Volume was a bit above average. GDX remains short term overbought. Let me emphasize that gold and the gold shares have gone straight up recently and that condition cannot last. A pullback or sideways consolidation are long overdue. Gold itself is overbought on whatever time frame you choose. GDX is very far from its 50 day moving average, much more than usual. I do like the gold shares calls but not until they at least return to oversold levels. Not sure when that will happen but it will. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower today and the short term indicators are trying to trend down. I'm not sure where the VIX heads from here. The markets will be at the mercy of whatever news pops up during the three day weekend. I will take that time to go over the charts and try to figure out what trade to take on next. Asia up and Europe down overnight. It's Thursday afternoon and time for some rest.
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