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Friday, April 11, 2025

Moving higher to end the week as the Dow gained 619 points on heavy volume. The advance/declines were better than 2 to 1 positive. The summation index is still moving lower. The NASDAQ led the way higher. The short term indicators for the S&P 500 remain mid-range. I expect that the recent lows on the S&P will hold for a while. It will take time for the medium term indicators to work their way up from blown out oversold levels. However there is a down trend line in effect at 5600 for the S&P. If we can get back to that, I'll try the SPY puts. Option expiration week is on tap and it is a day less with a holiday next Friday. So with only four days left in the April option cycle the risk is probably more than I want to endure. Gold continued its great week as the futures added another seventy bucks to a new all time high. The US dollar was lower and interest rates were higher. The XAU gained 10 3/4 and GDX was up 2 1/2. Volume continued on the heavy side for the gold shares. Gold and the gold shares are moving straight up now and are pretty far from their 50 day moving averages. I do still like the idea of the gold share calls but will have to wait for some kind of rest or pullback before attempting the May calls there. GDX just went up over 20% in a week and that isn't something that usually occurs. We cannot project that type of performance out into the future. When things go straight up thay can also go straight down so we don't want to be long if that happens. However money has poured into gold and it's entirely possible that will continue given the geo-political backdrop. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower today and that fits with an up market. The short term indicators here are mid-range with some moving sideways. Not sure what's next for the VIX but it remains elevated so volatility should continue. We are also in a headline risk atmosphere more than usual that goes both ways. Being nimble and taking no big chances are still some of the ideas to remember. I'll be going over the charts as usual this weekend but probably not planning any short term trades for next week. Asia was mixed and Europe generally lower to close out the week overseas. It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

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