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Wednesday, April 30, 2025

Volatility returned today as the market made an incredible one day upside reversal. The Dow gained 141 points after being down almost 800 early on. The advance/declines were negative and volume was heavy. The summation index is moving up. GDP came in less than expected but the inflation data was on target. The Dow led the way with the NASDAQ being the laggard posting a small loss. The S&P 500 had a huge gap lower at the open and made it all the way back and then some. It remains short term overbought. My order for the SPY May puts remains out there however it really seems like this market wants to go higher. However technically we have reasons to be looking at the puts here for a short term trade. Perhaps I'll have to adjust my open order again but we'll see what happens overnight. Employment data out on Friday. Gold was off $28 on the futures. The US dollar was higher and interest rates dipped slightly. The XAU was up 2 1/8, while GDX added 1/2. Volume was light again. The gold shares did outperform the metal itself and that's a plus. The short term indicators for GDX have gotten to mid-range but we'd still like to see them get all the way to oversold before trying the calls there. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX had only a slight gain and finished well below its best levels on the day. It remains short term oversold. The daily candlestick chart looks like it wants to go lower which would be supportive for the stock market. We still have earnings to contend with. Beginning of the month of May tomorrow. Plenty to think about tonight. Asia and Europe were generally higher overnight. I'll keep watch for any overnight developments.

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