Thursday, May 01, 2025
Another day, another gain as the Dow rose 83 points on good volume. The advance/declines were positive. The summation index is moving higher. The NASDAQ led the way up and that's a plus for the bulls. We had a gap at the open and the gain would have been a lot more if not for a last ten minute bout of selling. The S&P 500 managed to close above its 50 day moving average. It remains short term overbought. I adjusted my order for the SPY May puts overnight but it still did not get filled. I did however decide that I would buy them so I did. My entry was not that good. I should have been more patient and the lousy entry will mean either more of a loss or less profit on this outcome. Technically this trade seems to make sense in the short term. We'll see. Gold got clobbered and slid $81 on the futures. As previously stated, when things go straight up the ending isn't pretty. However if the gold shares get short term oversold I'm willing to try the calls. The US dollar was higher along with interest rates. The XAU lost 6 3/4, while GDX fell 1 7/8. Volume was above average. The short term indicators for GDX are getting to oversold but not completely there yet. The 50 day moving average lies at 45 which could be an entry point for the calls there. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX finished flat on the session. It remains short term oversold and above the 20 level. Not sure what comes next for the VIX. In the next trade now and not sure for how long. Might hold it over the weekend or not. Depends on the price movement tomorrow. Asia finished mixed and most of Europe was on a holiday. All eyes on tomorrows jobs report and the market reaction to it.
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