Monday, May 12, 2025
The market exploded to the upside on the heels of a weekend trade agreement between the US and China. Headline risk works both ways. The Dow gained 1160 points on pretty heavy volume. The advance/declines were slightly better than 3 to 1 positive. The summation index is moving up. The NASDAQ led the way and that's a plus. The S&P 500 jumped over 180 points. It remains short term overbought and staying that way. Inflation data due out tomorrow but the bulls have taken charge. If we continue higher into Wednesday I could make a technical case to try the SPY puts there. But the risk with only a couple of days left in the May option cycle may not be worth it. Gold got clobbered as a trade deal and lower geo-political risk took hold. The precious metal futures dropped $105. The US dollar was higher along with interest rates. The XAU tanked 13 1/3, while GDX sank 3 3/4. Volume was heavy to the downside. There's an up trend line on GDX at 44 and it looks like we are headed there. The short term indicators for GDX have rolled back down. The weekly indicators for GDX have plenty of room to move lower. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX had a gap lower and closed below the important level of 20. The near term up trend line was broken and the next up trend line is about to be breached as well. My idea to try the SPY puts at the up trend line was off. The VIX now lies on its lower Bollinger band and its 200 day moving average. The short term indicators remain oversold. Not sure what comes next here on the VIX. Markets were up around the globe in a sigh of relief. We'll see if there is any reaction to the inflation data tomorrow.
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