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Friday, May 02, 2025

The rally continues as it was fueled today by a report last night that the US and China are starting to talk about tariff relief. The Dow gained 564 points on good volume. The advance/declines were better than 4 to 1 positive. The summation index is moving up. The jobs report came in better than expected. Both the NASDAQ and the S&P 500 led the charge today. The S&P remains short term overbought and has been higher for nine days in a row. I can't recall the last time that happened. Needless to say my SPY May puts got crushed today. I probably should have just dumped them today as this trade is going to be a loser barring some type of market catastrophe. But I figured I'd hold them over the weekend and sell them most likely on Monday. I could technically make the argument for purchasing them yesterday but technical analysis doesn't always work out as an overnight headline caused the stock price movement today. Headline risk goes both ways. I'll regroup over the weekend and go from there. Gold was up twenty bucks on the futures. The US dollar was lower and interest rates were higher. The XAU lost 1 1/3 and GDX dipped 1/8. Volume was light. Gold up and the gold shares down isn't bullish. GDX is not yet completely short term oversold. Waiting for it to get to the 50 day moving average at 45 or the up trend line at 43 before looking at the calls there. However with stocks moving higher and a thaw in the US/China tariff turmoil the appeal of gold loses some luster. Mentally I'm feeling a bit frustrated as another losing trade is on the menu. The VIX was lower and remains short term oversold. Its 200 day moving average is on its way to lining up with the important level of 20 which is also where an up trend line exists on the daily chart. If it makes it there that would be the next time to possibly attempt the SPY puts. I'll be checking the charts over the weekend as usual. We've got the Fed next week and that should provide excuses for market movement although no surprises are expected. Asia and Europe were higher to close out the week. It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

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