Tuesday, May 06, 2025
Todays price action was a repeat of yesterday. We opened with a gap down, made it all the way back to fill the gap and then rolled over again with weakness in the final half hour. The Dow fell 389 points on good volume. The advance/declines were negative. The summation index is still moving higher. The Dow led things lower and that isn't the most bearish thing. The S&P 500 remains short term overbought on some of its indicators. The short term up trend line in effect comes in at 5500. I would expect that to hold if we even do make it down there. If for some reason it wouldn't hold then we are heading lower. My SPY May puts are still solid losers and I will seriously have to consider taking the loss tomorrow with the Fed meeting on board. We should get some market movement from that tomorrow. Gold was up over a hundred again today on the futures. The US dollar was lower along with interest rates. The XAU jumped 7 1/3, while GDX was up two points. Volume was good to the upside. The short term indicators for GDX are now moving up. I cannot believe that I missed this trade again. GDX got to short term oversold a couple of days ago and I did not buy the calls. I just didn't think this trade was going to work again but it did. In the meantime I was taking on a bad entry to the SPY put trade that I'm in now. I guess gold knows something that we don't. Mentally I'm feeling a bit tired. The VIX was up today which fits a down market. It does remain short term oversold though. Still below the 50 day moving average here. We are either on the cusp of the short term indicators moving higher on the VIX and volatility picking up or the indicators will roll back down and the market move higher. Asia was generally higher and Europe lower overnight. All eyes and ears on the Fed tomorrow and the market reaction to it.
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