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Wednesday, May 21, 2025

We saw some actual selling today as the Dow fell 816 points on heavy volume. The advance/declines were 9 to 1 negative. The summation index is beginning to stall. Things were moving along smoothly until near the end of lunch hour when the market started to tank. The Dow led the way down so I'm not inclined to think that a sustained move lower is coming. If the NASDAQ takes the lead that would change my view. The short term indicators for the S&P 500 have started to roll over but it remains overbought. The S&P remains above both the 50 and 200 day moving averages. Gold added another $37 on the futures. The US dollar was lower and interest rates were higher. The XAU was up over 2 points while GDX rose 2/3. Volume was a bit above average. GDX made it past its short term down trend line. The indicators here are moving higher with room to go before hitting overbought. I'm still in the camp of getting the June calls here if we see some pullback but it is probably too late. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was higher today which fits a down market. It is now back above the 20 level and its 200 day moving average. The short term indicators are finally moving up from the oversold region. Tomorrow will be important to see if today was just a one day wonder or maybe something that will last a bit longer. The VIX did break above the near term down trend line today. Today was the first decent sign of selling in about a month. The short term up trend line for the S&P 500 comes in around 5800 and another day like today would take us through there. So much for a quiet week ahead of the holiday weekend. Asia and Europe were generally higher overnight. Tomorrow will probably tell us a lot about where we are going. We'll keep an eye on the overnight headlines.

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