Thursday, May 15, 2025
We had somewhat of a mixed bag today as most of the major indices posted gains except for the NASDAQ. There were mostly one day upside reversals as stocks opened lower and closed higher. The Dow gained 271 points on heavy volume. The advance/declines were around 2 to 1 positive. The summation index is moving higher. Retail sales came in where expected and the inflation data was mixed. The NASDAQ was the laggard today as it had a small loss. The S&P 500 had a small gap lower at the open but then turned around and had a positive close. My idea of the SPY puts with only two days to go would probably not of worked as I would have had to exit the position in the first half hour of trading to show a small profit. I most likely would have had to book another loser. That was luckily avoided this time around. The S&P remains short term overbought and has been for the past few weeks on some of the indicators. This condition will not go on much longer in my view. Rolling into the June option cycle now that has an extra week baked into it. Premiums are high. Gold jumped $45 on the futures. The US dollar was lower along with interest rates. The XAU was up 3 1/8, while GDX added 7/8. Volume was a bit above average. The short term indicators for GDX are trying to turn back up from oversold territory. I'm still in the camp of waiting for GDX to return to the up trend line that started in the beginning of the year before attempting the calls here again. That would be in the 44 area. Mentally I'm feeling a bit mixed as the latest SPY trade idea did not pan out. At the rate things are going the market may reach up to new all time highs soon. I certainly did not see that coming. Hasn't happened yet. The VIX was lower today and is about to crack the up trend line that started at the end of last year. Short term oversold and staying that way. Not sure how much longer that condition can go on but it is obviously more than I considered. Option expiration on tap for Friday. Asia mostly lower and Europe higher overnight. We'll keep an eye on tonights headlines.
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