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Wednesday, May 07, 2025

Volatility returned after the Fed announcement today as the market bounced back and forth. The Dow finihed with a gain of 284 points on heavy volume. The advance/declines were positive. The summation index is moving up. The Dow once again was the leader. Both the NASDAQ and the S&P 500 posted gains but not a much as the Dow. The S&P remains short term overbought. I sold my SPY May puts for a 70% loss as I dumped them at the worst possible time when the market jumped in the final hour. I basically got the low price on the day. This trade would expire worthless if I continued to hang on to it. A lousy entry and worst possible exit add up to a losing trade. Seven days now left in the May option cycle, not sure if I'll try another trade in it. The S&P remains overbought but I'm not sure if I can get the timing right for a short term trade. Probably will have to remain on the sidelines. Gold dropped $44 on the futures. The US dollar was higher and interest rates a bit lower. The XAU lost 2 3/8 and GDX shed around a point. Volume was average. The gold shares held up pretty well considering the drop in gold. The short term indicators for GDX are beginning to stall though. Mentally I'm frustrated as another losing trade is booked. The market doesn't care. You've got to keep on going in this game and that is what I'll try to do. The ideas haven't been that bad recently but the execution on the trading is lacking. I suppose I'll just have to wait for the next signal and see what I can do with it. The VIX was lower today and is still short term oversold. It looks like the VIX wants to move sideways here but we'll see. Perhaps remaining oversold as the market trends higher will be the case here. But we are still at the mercy of the next headline. Asia was mostly higher and Europe lower in last nights trade. We'll see how things go tomorrow.

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