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Tuesday, May 13, 2025

A mixed bag today as the overall market was higher but the Dow lower. The most watched index fell 269 points on heavy volume. The advance/declines were positive. The summation index is moving up. The inflation data came in where expected. The NASDAQ led the way higher again and that's a plus. Both the NASDAQ and S&P 500 had decent gains. The S&P remains short term overbought. With only 3 days to go in the May option cycle and trade taken on here has expanded risk. That said, I'm still considering some SPY May puts if we see some strength tomorrow. One of our indicators will be giving a short term sell signal if tomorrow is up again. However both the entry and the exit would have to be pretty good since the time constraint will be a huge factor for success. I'll consider this idea overnight. Gold was up $27 on the futures. The US dollar was lower and interest rates ended the day flat. The XAU and GDX had slight fractional moves one way or the other on average volume. GDX is at its 50 day moving average and the short term indicators appear to be trying to turn back up. We will still wait and see if it can make it down to the up trend line that comes in at 44. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was just a bit lower today. It is right at an up trend line from the end of last year and remains short term oversold. We could be at the moment of truth for this indicator to bounce back up and volatility make a short term comeback. Or not. Perhaps the VIX will continue to drift lower and remain oversold as the market continues higher. What happens here will influence any short term trade that is taken on. Asia finished mixed and Europe was higher overnight. We'll see what tomorrow brings.

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