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Monday, April 07, 2025

Trying to stabalize things here but the Dow still fell 349 points on very heavy volume. The advance/declines were 4 to 1 negative. The summation index continues down towards the zero line and will pass through it decisively tomorrow. We had another huge gap down at the open and then traded all over the place with sharp gains and sharp losses. The overall market did much better than the Dow with the NASDAQ barely ending the day in positive territory. The S&P 500 had only a slight loss. It is now short term oversold on the indicators that we use. At one point today it was in bear market territory but closed above that. A lot of questions about what comes next without any clear answers. We are seeing a big volume washout here in my view so the downside from here could be limited for now. That doesn't mean there will be some kind of strong rally back to the highs from here. The up trend line of the bull market from October 2022 lies at 5000 and it still intact for now. Will it hold up for the rest of the week? We'll see. Gold got clipped over fifty bucks on the futures. The US dollar was a bit higher and interest rates went up. The XAU and GDX finished with fractional moves one way or the other on good volume. The gold shares bounced around following the overall market. I did place an overnight order for some GDX May calls and it wasn't filled. I'm leaving it out there. I don't think that I'll try the April calls for GDX but I could change my mind. Mentally I'm feeling a bit tired. The VIX made it all the way up to 60 today before falling back. I think that will be the high for this round of volatility. It still reads in the forties as we have seen things fall apart. The VIX is short term overbought on what we look at and I'd be surprised if it gets back to the 60 level here soon. I'm not saying that stocks can't go lower from here but some kind of pause in the decline looks to be in the works. I could be wrong. Asia got crushed and Europe clobbered to begin the trading week overseas. We'll see what happens on Tuesday.

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