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Wednesday, April 23, 2025

We had a huge gap higher at the open but spent the rest of the day sideways to lower. The Dow gained 419 points on heavy volume. The advance/declines were around 3 to 1 positive. The summation index is moving up. The NASDAQ led the way higher and that's a plus. The S&P 500 came within thirty points of the down trend line at 5500 but backed off. I canceled my open order for the SPY May calls. The short term signals for the S&P are barely turning up with room to go. I will try and project the option premiums if the S&P makes it to 5500 and place an order tomorrow for the SPY May puts. However with the summation index now moving higher it is entirely possible that the S&P 500 will exceed the down trend line and head for the 50 or 200 day moving averages. The trading is never easy. Gold got clobbered today with the futures off over a hundred bucks. The US dollar was higher and interest rates ended mixed. The XAU dropped 3 3/4 and GDX lost 1 3/8. They did finish up from their worse levels on the day though. Volume was good to the downside once again. The short term indicators for GDX still have a ways to go before getting to oversold. We will be patient on trying the May calls there for now. The near term up trend line for GDX is all the way back at 42. I'm not sure we will get there. There is support at 46 and the 50 day moving average comes in at 44. Mentally I'm feeling a bit tired. The VIX was lower today. The short term indicators here are heading down but are not yet oversold. Ideally the VIX will continue lower and the S&P will get to 5500. Then I will have to make a decision about taking on the next trade. Volatility is still the rule as we saw with todays intra-day swings. Asia and Europe were higher overnight. We'll keep an eye on this evenings developments.

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