Tuesday, April 08, 2025
Another volatile day on the street as we opened with a big gap higher only to give it all back and then some. The Dow fell 320 points on very heavy volume. The advance/declines were 3 to 1 negative. The summation index is heading down and past the zero line as things have fallen apart. A late 15 minute bounce kept things from closing lower. The NASDAQ led the way down. As long as that continues it will be hard to get things to calm down. The S&P 500 continues to flirt with the longer term up trend line at 5000 and today closed just below it. It is important for the bulls for this line to hold. The S&P remains short term oversold. I'm looking for some kind of bounce here but todays certainly didn't hold. Getting ready to call a bear market for the S&P 500 if it closes below 4920. If the 5000 level doesn't hold we'll get there. No SPY trades for now as the volatility has gotten out of hand. Gold was up $25 on the futures. The US dollar was lower and interest rates finished mixed. The XAU lost 1 1/2 and GDX ended the day flat. Both finished well off of the highs for the session. Volume was average. GDX is now short term oversold. I'm leaving my order for the GDX May calls out there. The gold shares continue to follow the moves of the overall stock market. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX bumped back up today and closed above 50. The short term indicators remain overbought. I thought the top for the VIX would be the 60 level we recently hit but that might be wrong. Volatile times to be sure. Can't rule anything out at this point I guess. Look for opportunities but remember that the risks here are higher than normal. Asia and Europe were both higher overnight. I'll keep an eye on this evenings developments.
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