Thursday, April 24, 2025
Continuing higher as the Dow climbed 486 points on good volume. The advance/declines were 5 to 1 positive. The summation index is moving up. The NASDAQ continues to lead the way and that is a plus. The S&P 500 is about to attack the daily down trend line and another day like today will slice right through it. The short term indicators for the S&P are moving up and not yet completely overbought. I'm leaving my order for the SPY May puts out there. However I've priced them to attempt to be filled at the 50 day moving average instead of the down trend line given the recent strength that we've witnessed. Even that may not be the right idea as the daily down trend line could hold and a decline would start rather soon. However the upside in the summation index cannot be ignored. Plus the blowout readings in the medium term indicators meant that we had to see some kind of move higher that we are seeing right now. Gold bounced back $63 on the futures today. The US dollar was lower along with interest rates. The XAU was up 3 1/3 and GDX gained a point. Volume was average. The short term indicators for GDX are beginning to stall. My guess is that we need to see more of a correction for gold here but we'll see. I'd like to see GDX make it back to its 50 day moving average before trying the calls there but markets rarely cooperate. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower again today. In oversold territory now but not completely so. Almost back to the 50 day moving average on the VIX and still above the 20 level. Not sure what's coming next here. Would like to see it continue lower as stocks go higher to set up the May puts. Europe finished slightly higher and Asia was mixed overnight. We'll close out the last full trading week for April tomorrow.
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