Friday, April 04, 2025
We went from tariff tantrum Thursday to free fall Friday as stocks got clobbered again. The Dow fell 2231 points on extremely heavy volume. The advance/declines were 10 to 1 negative. The summation index is moving down. The NASDAQ made it to bear market territory as it has now fallen over 20% from its recent all time high. Since it is usually the leader we can expect the S&P 500 to join it. That level for the S&P is 4920, which is below the longer term up trend line at 5000. At the rate things are going we'll get there on Monday. Today was the high volume very negative day wash out that we look for in declines such as this. Usually over the weekend the powers that be figure out how to prop things up near term so it doesn't get any worse. That is what we'll be looking for at some point on Monday. The S&P 500 is short term oversold but heading straight down on the daily chart. If it can't hold up at 5000 the next support is at 4675-4600. The 200 week moving average and another area of support comes in at those levels. It is unfortunate not to own some SPY puts here however option premiums have exploded. We have been down this road before and opportunities will continue to present themselves. Gold dumped $64 on the futures. The US dollar was higher. Interest rates were barely lower and finished well off of their lowest levels for the session. The XAU crashed over 17 points and GDX fell 4. Volume was extremely heavy in a downside blow out. The short term indicators for GDX are moving lower with room to go. The up trend line for GDX that had been in place since the beginning of the year was broken. GDX now lies just below the support of the 50 day moving average. The lower Bollinger band support is at 41. The 200 day moving average is at 38.5. I still like the gold share calls because in market declines like this everything gets sold as margin calls must be met with whatever you have that is worth something. I will be looking at the GDX May calls over the weekend as the potential next trade. Perhaps the GDX April calls as well but we'll see. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX shot up again and closed at the 45 level. The short term indicators are overbought. The VIX usually does not stay at high levels for very long. That said, in this decline there is no telling where the VIX may end up. There will be plenty of work to do over the weekend to try and come up with a game plan for next week. Staying on the sidelines until things settle down is a choice as well. It is a worldwide head for the exits as overseas markets got smashed too. China was on holiday. It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.
Subscribe to:
Post Comments (Atom)
No comments:
Post a Comment