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Monday, March 31, 2025

Most of the major stock averages made tremendous comebacks today as we opened with huge gaps lower and then spent the rest of the session moving higher. The Dow gained 417 points on heavy volume. The advance/declines were barely positive. The summation index is trending lower. The NASDAQ was the laggard today as it did not make it back to positive territory. The S&P 500 retested the recent low this morning and it has held for now. There is a new short term down trend line in place there that comes in around 5750. Some of the short term indicators for the S&P are starting to turn back up. The question now is have we put in a bottom with the successful retest of the lows or will things roll over again? The summation index heading to the zero line implies that we might fall apart here. However todays sharp comeback says that perhaps we've put a double bottom in. Always plenty of questions in this game. Gold was up over forty bucks on the futures to another all time high. The US dollar was a bit higher and interest rates finished flat. The XAU and GDX had fractional gains on average volume. The gold shares finished well up from their lows on the session. GDX remains short term overbought as it has been for the last three weeks. Perhaps we should just chase the gold shares higher here as money continues to flow into this sector. But I'm inclined to at least wait until it falls back to the near term up trend line. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX finished a bit higher today and the short term indicators are still moving up. The daily candlestick chart on the VIX shows a black candle for today and it could be a near term top. That would mean lower VIX readings for the near future and higher stock prices. However we do have Trumps tariffs on Wednesday and the employment report on Friday. Plenty for the markets to digest this week. At this point I'm not sure what the next trade will be. Asia and Europe started the week on a down note. We'll see how things go in the overnight session.

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