Wednesday, March 19, 2025
It was an upside day from the start as the Dow gained 383 points on good volume. The advance/declines were shy of 3 to 1 positive. The summation index is trying to turn back up. The Fed came and went with no surprises. It could have been a better day but we sold off in the last hour. The NASDAQ led the way and that's a plus. The short term indicators for the S&P 500 are trying to turn back up but not there yet. I did leave an order out there for the SPY March calls overnight but it wasn't filled this morning. I once again adjusted it and it got filled. The entry timing is obviously off as yesterday would have been a better entry. Only 2 days left in the March option cycle so this idea is full of risk. It is showing a small profit but the premium is way below its best level on the session. I plan on holding it into Friday as of right now. Gold was up $16 on the futures. The US dollar was higher and interest rates ended a bit lower. The XAU was up 1 1/4 and GDX rose 1/3. Volume was light. Still short term overbought for GDX on the daily indicators. Mentally I'm feeling a bit tired. The VIX was lower today and closed just below 20. The short term indicators are reaching the oversold territory but not completely. I'm still not sure what to expect next for the VIX. I'm in the next trade now and that will require all of my attention. Might put in a limit order to sell and see if it gets hit tomorrow. However holding out until Friday seems like the better plan at the moment. More than the usual amount of risk though. Asia and Europe ended mixed. We'll keep an eye on tonights headlines.
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