Monday, March 10, 2025
Stocks got pounded lower today as the Dow lost 890 points on very heavy volume. The advance/declines were 4 to 1 negative. The summation index is moving down. Traders are heading for the exits. It could have been worse but we got a last hour bounce. The Dow was off over 1000 and the S&P was down 200 points. The NASDAQ continues to lead things lower and that is a negative. We met the 5600 level for the S&P today which was what we were looking for. Does that mean that the decline is over? Perhaps but the S&P 500 remains short term oversold and staying that way. If we have a double top on the Dow its measuring objective woould be 3000 points lower at 39000. The S&P broke therough its 200 day moving average today. There is a lot of negative price action for stocks right now. Inflation data on tap for Wednesday and Thursday. We never got a snap back in the S&P to the short term down trend line to try the SPY puts. That could still happen but the question is whether or not we'd like to try it. The summation index is heading to the zero line and we've got to hope that holds or things could get really crazy. Gold lost $24 on the futures. The US dollar was slightly higher and interest rates dipped. The XAU fell 5 1/3 and GDX lost 1 1/8. Volume was average. I put in an overnight order for the GDX March calls but it wasn't filled. I adjusted it and am leaving it out there. The short term indicators for GDX have rolled over with room to go. I'm not exactly sure this is the right idea here but we'll see. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was higher and almost hit 30 today. The short term indicators remain overbought. I'm not sure how much longer the uptrend here can last but it has been impressive so far. Volatility rules for now with lower stock prices the result. Not sure what to expect next because we've only been able to have one day rallies for the past 2 1/2 weeks. The sidelines hasn't been a bad place to be but owning puts would have been better. Europe and Asia were down with the exception of Japan. We'll see how things go tomorrow.
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