Friday, March 21, 2025
We had a pretty dramatic one day reversal today with a huge gap lower at the open only to claw our way back for the rest of the session to eventually eek out a small gain. The Dow added 32 points on expiration heavy volume. The advance/declines were around 2 to 1 negative. The summation index is tracking sideways to higher. Once again volatility ruled the day. The NASDAQ led the way back. The Dow was off 500 points in the morning. The S&P 500 managed a minor gain as the short term indicators are moving up. The opening gap down killed my SPY March call options. Having a stop limit order in place didn't matter as the opening premium for the options was well below the limit price. It turned into a 95% loss overnight. I really don't do well on the short term trades. The only saving grace was that there wasn't a lot of money involved since I never have much success on the short term deals. The short term down trend line is still in effect for the S&P but I'm pretty sure that won't last much longer. Some of our medium term indicators are flashing buy signals so some kind of rally should be at hand. Gold was off $18 on the futures. The US dollar was higher and interest rates finished flat. The XAU fell 2 1/4, while GDX lost 2/3. Volume was about average. The gold shares finished up from their worst levels on teh day. Mentally I'm feeling disappointed as you would expect with a losing trade booked. The market certainly doesn't care and you've got to move on from it. The VIX again finished lower from the best levels of the day and is below the 20 level. Some of its short term indicators are oversold. I'm not getting a good idea of where the VIX is heading next. Still above both the 50 and 200 day moving averages there. Plenty of work to do over the weekend as we roll into the April option cycle. Europe and Asia finished Friday lower with the exception of India. It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.
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