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Thursday, March 13, 2025

Still moving lower as there is no bounce to be found. The Dow fell 537 points on heavy volume. The advance/declines were better than 2 to 1 negative. The summation index continues lower as the zero line approaches. The inflation data was mild and it didn't matter. Oversold, staying that way and the S&P chart looks like a straight line down. We've reached and exceeded the dwonside technical objective for the S&P 500 based on the daily chart. So we are in dangerous territory at a chance of even more collapse than we've already seen. Not your normal trading environment so I'll have to sit on the sidelines for now with regards to the S&P. If we ever do get a snapback to the down trend line, I'll consider a trade there. Gold hit a new all time high on the futures as it was up $50. The US dollar was higher and interest rates were lower. The XAU gained 4 1/3, while GDX ws up 1 1/4. Volume was good to the upside. GDX is now short term overbought but not completely so. Perhaps I'll try the calls there in the next six days as money is continuing to flow into this sector. But the ideal time for the GDX call trade has long passed. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was barely higher today. Not sure what that means. The short term indicators have stalled but remain on the overbought side. We are in the kind of game now where money does not want to be in US stocks. I'm not sure how much longer this will last. The technicals are blown out to the downside and we can't even get more than a one day advance. If the zero line on the summation index is breached we will have some type of collapse. So we've got to be extra careful with what we do right now. Europe and Asia were generally lower overnight. We'll close out the trading week tomorrow.

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