Tuesday, March 11, 2025
The market tried to gain some traction today but failed again as the Dow fell 478 points on very heavy volume. The advance/declines were negative. The summation index continues lower. The Dow led the way down and that's not the worst scenario. The NASDAQ fell the least and if you're bullish you could point to that. The S&P 500 remains short term oversold and pretty far from its 50 day moving average. I'm not sure just how much longer this will go on. Inflation data tomorrow will be a mover one way or the other. The short term down trend line for the S&P now comes in at 5800. I still like the idea of trying some puts if it ever bounces back to that line. The mood on the street is so bearish that some kind of snap back rally is inevitable. However we are getting closer to the zero line in the summation index and crossing that would spell even more trouble. Interesting times. Gold was up $24 as it made back what it lost yesterday. The US dollar was lower and interest rates were higher. The XAU gained 5 7/8, while GDX was up 1 1/4. Volume was average. The short term indicators for GDX have turned back up. My open order for the GDX March calls wasn't filled and I canceled it. I still like the gold share calls here but will not pay up for them as the option premiums remain high with 8 days to go in the March option cycle. Needless to say this trade was missed as was the SPY put idea. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower today despite a drop in stocks which doesn't fit. Perhaps it is telegraphing a bounce tomorrow for the market. The short term indicators remain overbought for the VIX. The volume in the market continues to be robust as traders head for the exits. Usually these types of declines have some sort of heavy volume washout as the selling gets exhausted. We'll be keeping an eye out for that. Europe and Asia were lower overnight. I'll keep an eye on tonights headlines as we await the reaction to tomorrows inflation data.
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