Tuesday, March 04, 2025
It was almost a one day upside reversal as the market sold off hard early on, moved higher for much of the rest of the session to get back into positive territory only to collapse again in the final hour. The Dow lost 708 points on very heavy volume. The advance/declines were better than 3 to 1 negative. The summation index is moving lower. The NASDAQ held up the best today and that should be a positive going forward. But we are on shaky ground. The S&P 500 made it down to its 200 day moving average and bounced from that level. It is important for it to hold on here but our measuring objective from the double top is still 5600. The short term indicators for the S&P remain oversold. There is a down trend line in place now on the daily chart. If we could somehow make it back to that line it would give us a chance for the SPY March puts. But it looks like that ship has sailed and I missed it. High option premiums have kept me on the sidelines. Gold was up $27 on the futures. The US dollar was lower and interest rates finished mixed. The XAU gained 1 1/4 and GDX was up 5/8. Volume was lighter than average. I did place an overnight order for the GDX March calls but it wasn't filled and I canceled it. The short term indicators for GDX have turned back up and it looks like I've missed this trade as well. Still plenty of time in the March option cycle but you've got to nimble in fast markets which is where we find ourselves. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX finished higher but off from the highest levels on the day. The short term indicators remain overbought which isn't how the VIX usually operates. It is another indicator pointing out the trading environment that we're in. Not sure what to expect tomorrow. Perhaps I'll be able to take some kind of position ahead of Fridays employment report. Europe and Asia were lower too as it's a worldwide wave of selling at the moment. We'll keep an eye on the overnight developments.
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