Friday, March 07, 2025
Bouncing around today and perhaps trying to put in a short term bottom? The Dow gained 222 points on heavy volume. The advance/declines were positive. The summation index is heading lower. The jobs report was a bit weaker than expected but it did not seem to matter to the market. We hit the lows for the session about halfway through and rallied back the rest of the day. The NASDAQ led the way back and that's a plus. The S&P 500 is still short term oversold and staying there. It did manage to hold at the 200 day moving average again and that's why I think a bounce here is due. Ideally if it could make it back to the short term down trend line I'd like to try the SPY puts there. Markets rarely cooperate. That line now comes in at 5875. It was a tough week to be long stocks. Gold was off $8 on the futures. The US dollar finished a little lower and interest rates were a bit higher. The XAU was up about a point and GDX added 1/4. Volume was light. I did place an order for the GDX March calls overnight but it wasn't filled and I canceled it. The short term indicators for GDX are still heading higher with room to go before reaching overbought. I'll reconsider this idea over the weekend. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower today and remains short term overbought. Still above the 20 level and pretty far from its 50 day moving average. Not sure what happens next with this indicator. Two weeks to go in the March option cycle and I anticipate making some kind of trade within that timespan. Volatility is the key here and the trading has to be nimble for success. We'll see if I'm up to the challenge. I'll be going over the charts this weekend as usual. Asia and Europe were lower on the last trading day of the week. It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.
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