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Wednesday, March 12, 2025

A little bit calmer price action than we've seen lately as the Dow fell 82 points on heavy volume. The advance/declines were positive. The summation index is moving down. The overall market fared better than the Dow with both the NASDAQ and S&P 500 posting gains for the day. We got a signal from the McClellan oscillator last night for a big move within the next two trading sessions. However we've had some pretty big moves without this signal lately so I don't know how much validity we can place with it this time around. The inflation data came in lighter than expected but we didn't get a huge market reaction. The S&P remains short term oversold here. PPI data tomorrow. I'm still in the camp of waiting for a move back to the short term down trend line in the S&P to try the SPY March puts. We are certainly overdue for some kind of rally attempt but markets go where they want. Gold was up twenty bucks on the futures. The US dollar was a bit higher and interest rates ticked up. The XAU was up 1 1/3 and GDX added 1/8. Volume was light. I'm back on the sidelines regarding GDX for now. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower today which fits with the overall market advance. The short term indicators here have turned back down but that hasn't meant much lately. Running out of time now in the March option cycle but we do have the Fed next week which should get things moving one way or the other. It looks like a short term bottom may be in on some of the major indices daily candlestick charts. But unless we move higher tomorrow it will just be another fake out in the decline. So the price action on Thursday will be telling. Europe was higher and Asia generally lower overnight. I'll keep an eye on tonights developments.

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