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Tuesday, May 19, 2020

We were sailing along just fine today but in the final hour a report came out that yesterdays pandemic virus vaccine cure doesn't work and the Dow fell 390 points on good volume.  The advance/declines were negative.  The summation index is trending sideways.  The overall market was not as weak as the Dow and that's a plus.  We were at the mercy of the US/China trade talks and now that's shifted to the next headline about the pandemic virus.  It's a tough game to play.  Economic data remains very weak.  The Fed chairman spoke today but there was nothing new.  The S&P 500 remains short term overbought.  I was looking at the SPY June puts today but it's now too late for that.  Waiting for some kind of set up there but not signal is imminent.  We are still in a sideways channel almost up against the upper Bollinger band.  A rollover here is not out of the possibilities.  GE was off a few cents on good volume.  Gold bounced back and was up a dozen on the futures.  The US dollar was slightly lower.  The XAU climbed 4 1/2, while GDX was up 1 1/4.  Volume was about average.  I do have an open order out there for some GDX June calls but it will take a drop in the index to get it filled.  That may not happen as any selling in the gold shares is quickly met by buyers.  Overbought here now for almost two months with no end in sight.  It is a trend worth following in my mind.  The money simply continues to flow here and there seems to be plenty of it.  Timing the purchase of the options is the challenge as usual.  I'll try not to be in too much of a hurry here but waiting for a complete oversold reading on the short term indicators most likely isn't going to work.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The VIX finished higher after being down most of the session.  The late hour selling caused that in my view.  The Bollinger bands are contracting here but I'd like to wait until the lower band is reached before taking on a short position.  There's a chance that things just head lower from here depending on what happens with the overnight news.  However there is still plenty of money around to stifle any real bouts of selling I think.  That's a guess as usual.  The options for June are still very pricey, so any trade here has to have a decent signal.  Patience probably isn't a bad idea for now.  Asia was higher and Europe mixed in last nights trading.  We'll keep an eye on the news tonight and see how it goes tomorrow.

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