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Tuesday, May 12, 2020

Some downside today as the Dow fell 457 points on heavy volume.  The advance/declines were 3 to 1 negative.  This should turn the summation index sideways.  Fear of the pandemic virus crept back into the picture with testimony about it in the senate.  There was a pop higher right at the open today but then constant selling after that.  The final hour was a complete collapse and that certainly doesn't bode well for tomorrow.  The short term technical indicators have now rolled over for the S&P.  Perhaps a trip down to the 200 day moving average at around 2700 is in the cards.  Perhaps I should have held on to those SPY May puts that I had.  No, not really as my timing on that particular trade was off from the beginning.  GE was off about twenty cents and the volume was good.  Gold was up a couple bucks on the futures and the US dollar was lower.  The XAU and GDX had slight fractional losses on very light volume.  There seems to be no interest in the gold shares.  My GDX May calls are now showing even more of a loss as the gold shares will probably sink with the overall market if things continue to head lower.  There was a chance to exit this trade early in the day with a gain but I did not take it.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The VIX spiked higher and does have plenty of room to run up if it so pleases.  It did in fact bounce off of its lower Bollinger band.  The short term technical indicators have now reversed to the upside with plenty of room to run.  Perhaps the market will sell off for expiration week which would be the opposite of the usual positive bias.  But there's still three days to go before the end of the week so we'll just have to wait and see.  That said, the daily candlestick charts for the major averages look bearish and I'd expect some more decline to come in the near term.  Too late for the SPY May puts now in my opinion but perhaps that trade could still work.  Not worth the risk in my opinion with only 3 days to go.  After today there's a chance that the rally form March is now over.  Keep that in mind going forward despite the Fed continuing to pump up the liquidity.  Interesting times.  I'll be keeping an eye on gold overnight to see if there's any flight to safety.  That is probably the only chance of saving the GDX May call trade at this point.  Europe and Asia were generally lower.  We'll keep an eye on the overnight developments.

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