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Monday, May 04, 2020

A one day reversal to the upside to start the week as the Dow opened lower and closed higher.  The most watched index gained 26 points on good volume.  The advance/declines were negative.  The summation index is moving up but not with the strength of the prior week.  The overall market was much stronger than the Dow and that is a plus for the bulls.  Some states are opening back up but it isn't a mass return to business as usual.  There will be stops and starts to getting things back open again.  We only are concerned with the market action and direction.  The short term technical indicators for the S&P have stopped falling and are trying to turn around.  I'm still in the bearish camp here.  A light volume rally to 2900 before the employment report on Friday would be the ideal scenario in my mind.  I'm still looking at the SPY May puts.  GE was off 1/4 and the volume was heavy.  Layoffs are coming there.  Gold was up over $10 on the futures and the US dollar was higher as well.  The XAU added 2 1/4, while GDX rose 3/4.  Volume was light.  I did place an open order for some GDX May calls overnight but it wasn't filled.  NEM reports earnings tomorrow and that could be the key to the price action in GDX.  GOLD reports on Wednesday.  I still like the idea of the GDX May calls but time is running out and the earnings reports are a wild card.  If we get some near term weakness in GDX I'll probably try the calls.  If not I'll simply have to wait for the June option cycle.  The short term technical indicators here have turned back up.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The VIX  was lower today and looks like it may be headed back down to the lower Bollinger band.  It that occurs, it would set up the SPY may put trade ahead of the employment report.  The jobs numbers on Friday will be terrible and I don't see how the market would rally off of that.  But the market will go where it wants to and the reaction to the news is always more important than the news itself.  Again, a light volume levitation from here for a couple of more days would set up the trade for the index puts.  So we'll be keeping our fingers crossed as we watch and wait.  Europe and Asia were lower yesterday but we'll see how things go tonight.

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