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Friday, May 15, 2020

A somewhat quiet expiration Friday as the Dow gained 60 points on heavy volume.  The advance/declines were positive.  The overall market was stronger than the Dow.  The summation index is moving down.  The economic data was weak as expected but we didn't see a huge market reaction.  Things were lower early but we rallied steady through the day.  Kind of a repeat of yesterdays market action.  Now that we have the option expiration out of the way we'll have to see where we go next week.  I'm still in the longer term bearish camp as the underlying economic conditions haven't changed.  The pandemic virus is in charge and there's still no handle on that.  Things haven't completely collapsed in the markets thanks to the Fed and Congress handing out plenty of money like candy on Halloween.  This simply cannot continue forever as it creates artificial demand that will subside once the money dries up.  I think that it's safe to say that real economic growth will take a while to return.  GE was down almost another 1/4 on pretty heavy volume.  As long as Boeing and the airlines continue to have trouble, GE will languish.  Gold continued higher with the futures gaining $15.  Silver had another stellar session with a big gain and has broken out from near term resistance.  The US dollar was little changed.  The XAU tacked on 5 1/3, while GDX added 1 3/8.  Volume remains on the light side but there are no apparent sellers here.  The gold shares have broken out from the recent congestion and higher prices seem to be assured from here.  Overbought both short and medium term here as well.  I'll be looking for another entry point to get the GDX calls again for June.  Obviously holding on to the May GDX calls for another day would have been well worth it.  I just didn't have the guts even knowing that we were breaking out.  There was always the chance that today could have been a snap back to the breakout point.  If that was the case then I wouldn't be lamenting selling my position yesterday.  But as always you've just got to keep moving forward in this game.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The VIX was just slightly lower and the short term technical indicators are now mid-range.  Based on that, things could go either way here.  The S&P 500 held its lower Bollinger band and has mid-range short term indicators as well.  Patience will have to be the strategy at the moment and even more so with an extra week in the June option cycle.  Premiums are high and the recent volatility doesn't help with trying to get a low entry price.  I am going to continue to follow the gold shares despite the recent run up.  They are overdue for a rest and if they get one here soon that would be the chance to try the GDX June calls.  I will however check all the charts over the weekend and see what's out there to trade.  Europe and Asia were higher to end the week.  It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

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