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Wednesday, May 06, 2020

The market fell apart in the final hour again as the Dow lost 218 points on good volume.  The advance/declines were 2 to 1 negative.  The summation index is now starting to turn around.  The NASDAQ was positive though, so the bulls can hang on to that.  My open order for the May SPY puts was not filled and I'm leaving it out there.  Frustrating is the only way to describe it.  Perhaps I should have moved the price up but it doesn't matter now.  The Bollinger bands for the S&P are starting to converge which implies a big move coming soon.  I do believe that it will be to the downside.  My inability to put a trade on here is troubling.  I don't have the greatest sell signal here but with the jobs report on Friday, I don't know who would be buying stocks after that.  It's probably past the ideal time to get the puts though unless we somehow have a rally tomorrow.  GE was off about 1/4 and the volume remains heavy.  Gold fell today with the futures down over twenty bucks.  The US dollar was higher.  The XAU lost 3 1/2, while GDX dropped almost 1 1/8.  Volume was light.  I placed another open order for the GDX May calls today and I'm leaving it out there.  Another day like today would get it filled.  Still short term overbought for the gold shares but that has been the case for weeks.  I do believe that gold will rally with a terrible jobs report.  I could be wrong.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The VIX just had a little bump up today and remains oversold.  We'll get some economic data out tomorrow with the jobless claims probably being the most watched.  With only seven days to go in the May option cycle, the risk is pretty high to take on any trades.  Combine that with the volatility premium that is still stuck in the option pricing and you can see how tough a trade will be to put on here.  Anything wrong in the entry timing or direction will be fatal.  I'm hoping that I'm up to the task.  I really think that buyers have dried up for now with the late day selling that we've seen in the market the past couple of days.  My regret at the moment is not being able to take advantage of it for now.  But you've got to keep moving in this game.  Asia was mixed and Europe lower in last nights trade.  We'll see what tomorrow brings.

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