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Wednesday, May 20, 2020

A bounce back from yesterdays decline as the Dow gained 369 points on good volume.  The advance/declines were almost 4 to 1 positive.  This should have the summation index moving higher.  No new news to speak of today.  The country is slowly opening back up amid the pandemic virus.  Technically the S&P remains short term overbought and is approaching its 200 day moving average.  We'll get a bunch of economic data tomorrow and the Fed chairman speaks in the afternoon.  So it has the potential to be a volatile session.  Friday will be a get out of town day before a long weekend.  At least that's how it used to be.  I still favor the SPY June puts as the next trade with that instrument.  GE was up almost 1/4 and volume was lighter than yesterday.  Gold rose $5 on the futures as the US dollar was slightly lower again.  The XAU was off 1 1/8, while GDX almost shed 2/3.  Volume was light.  We're still short and medium term overbought for gold and the gold shares.  However I would expect the recent trend to continue.  Which means any selling will be quickly met with buyers.  My open order is still out there but we'll need to see a decent drop in GDX for it to be filled.  I'm still advising patience for now.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The VIX headed back down today but the indicators are not yet fully oversold.  Perhaps a combination of oversold indicators at the same time the VIX touches its lower Bollinger band will set up a signal for the SPY June put trade.  That's just wishful thinking on my part for now because it hasn't happened yet.  But that is one scenario that might set up a trade.  Another would be if the VIX made it back to its 200 day moving average at 24.  There's a case to be made that the worst is over for the stock market and there will be no retest of the March lows.  At least that appears to be what the NASDAQ is saying.  We're just a few hundred points from new all time highs there.  So we'll see how things progress in the coming weeks.  Europe and Asia were higher overnight.  We'll see what tomorrow brings.

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