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Monday, May 18, 2020

The Dow took off to the upside today and was up over 1000 points until a late sell off.  It finished the session with a gain of 912 points on heavy volume.  The advance/declines were 8 to 1 positive.  The summation index will be back to trending sideways.  Good news about a possible vaccine for the pandemic virus would be one of the reasons for todays gains.  We also had the Fed chairman talking on TV last night and I guess he didn't spook the market with his comments.  The short term technical indicators for the S&P have moved back up.  We are about to challenge the 200 day moving average at around 3000.  What happens there will probably tell us if this is the beginning of the next leg higher or just another move in the recent sideways consolidation.  GE took off to the upside as well, gaining 3/4 on extremely heavy volume.  Gold dropped on the news of a vaccine with the futures off over twenty bucks.  The US dollar dropped as well.  The XAU fell 1 7/8, while GDX shed 2/3.  Volume remains light for the gold shares.  I'm still a believer in the upside for the gold shares and I'm looking at the GDX June calls.  The short term technical indicators here are starting to roll over but remain overbought.  Patience is what is needed here now but I do believe that there will be a chance to pick up the calls for the June option cycle at some point.  Gold heading back to $1680 would do the trick but that may not happen.. Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The VIX moved lower and the technical indicators here have moved back down.  It looks like the sell off last week will be all that we'll get to the downside for now.  The VIX should be heading to its 200 day moving average at 24.  That would be the logical spot to look at the SPY June puts.  However we had quite a gap to the upside at the open for the SPY and that fact cannot be ignored.  Perhaps the market is simply going to move higher from here.  We'll wait and see how this week unfolds.  With an extra week in the June option cycle, there isn't a rush to do things at the moment.  Europe and Asia were higher to begin the week with Europe having some huge gains.  We'll keep an eye on the overnight developments.

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