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Thursday, May 28, 2020

A late day sell off sent the Dow to a loss of 147 points on good volume.  The advance/declines were negative.  The summation index continues higher.  We had been positive and higher for much of the session but the sellers came out in the final hour.  Perhaps it's just end of the month squaring but that's just a guess on my part.  After the breakout from the congestion zone and solid move higher we were due for a rest anyway.  We'll have to keep an eye on tomorrow and see if there's any follow through.  All of the major averages remain short term overbought.  GE dropped fifty cents on heavy volume.  Gold was up pretty good early but then fell off.  The futures there did manage a gain of $8.  The US dollar was weaker.  The XAU and GDX had fractional moves one way or the other on light volume.  The GDX June calls that I purchased yesterday are still showing a small gain.  If the recent lows for GDX hold then this trade has a chance to work out.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The VIX was up just a bit today and the short term technical indicators here remain oversold.  My guess is that todays stock market decline is not the beginning of anything substantial.  Of course I could be wrong.  However the McClellan oscillator is pretty strong here which implies higher prices going forward.  We also just had a high volume breakout from a sideways market pattern.  That is bullish.  Now we may snap back to the top of the congestion zone in the near term.  That would not be out of the question.  But overall I believe that prices will be moving higher from here.  Gold needs to close a bit higher at the end of the month tomorrow so that the monthly candlestick chart there isn't so bearish.  We'll just have to wait and see what happens there.  Asia was mixed and Europe higher overnight.  We'll close out the week and the month tomorrow.

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